圖表派：一周美股回顧 - 26 Feb 2022 / Weekly S&P 500 Review

 

圖表派：一周美股回顧 - 26 Feb 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上升0.82%，收於4385點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周四大市創出了新低4115點，之後迅速反彈，并且在周五以接近全周高位收盤。本周市場的變化，讓我們對於短期的標記作出了一定的調整。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4819點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪。我們調整了短期的標記，目前認爲其中4223點是Minute a浪，4590點是Minute b浪，而4115點有可能是Minor A浪的結束，也可能只是其中一個分支。如果是前者的話，我們會迎來一個可觀的Minor B浪反彈，如果是後者的話，我們需要到4000點才會見到下一個支持。

 

下週短期的支持位是4279和3950點，阻力位在4394和4465點。短期的MACD熊交叉在縮小， RSI在週五收市處在平衡狀態。

 

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Weekly S&P 500 Review - 26 Feb 2022

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 0.82% this week and closed at 4385. We continue to maintain the medium-term trend as a downtrend. The SPX index reached a 2022 low at 4115 this Thursday, with a U turn later that day. The market development this week also lead to some adjustment on the short term counts.

 

Our long-term labelling on the SPX is after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4819, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The initial target for Intermediate ii will be 3700.

 

In the short-term, Intermediate ii will have 3 Minor waves. With the update this week, we re-labeled 4223 as the Minute a, 4590 as the Minute b, while it’s possible that Minor A has concluded at 4115, or it’s just part of the Minute c. If it’s the first option, then we should see a scalable Minor B bounce, or the market will turn back down next week and find support at around 4000.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4279 and 3950, while resistance is at 4394 and 4465. The short-term MACD bearish cross is getting narrow, and the RSI is at balance status at Friday closing.