圖表派：一周美股回顧 - 19 Feb 2022 / Weekly S&P 500 Review

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌1.58%，收於4349點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周前幾天指數試圖反彈，但是無法突破阻力，并且以全周的低位結束。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4819點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中4223點是完整的三浪下跌的Minor a浪 (4582點是Minute A浪，4749點是Minute B浪) ，之後經歷了3浪反彈，Minor b浪在4590點結束。我們目前處於Minor c浪下跌之中，預計Minor c浪有若干個可能性，包括4000點，3700點和3400點，目前我們比較偏向3700點的選項。

 

下週短期的支持位是4279和3950點，阻力位在4394和4465點。短期的MACD進入熊交叉， RSI在週五收市處在輕度超賣狀態。

 

***************** 

Weekly S&P 500 Review

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 1.58% this week and closed at 4349. We continue the medium-term trend is the downtrend. The SPX index bounce earlier this week but could not break through the resistance, and close in the weekly low.

 

Our long-term labelling on the SPX, is after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4819, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The target of Intermediate ii will be 3700.

 

In the short-term, Intermediate ii will have 3 Minor wave, and Minor a finished at 4223 with a clear 3 wave structure (Minute A at 4582, Minute B at 4749), and with the 3 wave rebound the Minor b also finished at 4590. We’re in the Minor c wave down now. There are multiple options for the Minor c target, including 4000, 3700 and 3400, while 3700 is the current preferred option.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4279 and 3950, while resistance is at 4394 and 4465. The short-term MACD started with a bearish cross, and the RSI is at slightly oversold status at Friday closing.