一周美股回顧 - 12 Feb 2022 / Weekly S&P 500 Review

 一周美股回顧 - 12 Feb 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌1.82%，收於4419點。我們確認中期趨勢是下跌趨勢。本周指數前高后低，讓我們確認了Intermediate ii浪的持續，並給出了新的中期和短期指引。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3 的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate i浪已經在4819點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，我們給Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點。

 

短期來説，Intermediate ii浪會分爲3個Minor浪，其中4223點是的Minor A浪，我們之後經歷了3浪反彈 (4595點是Minute a浪，4451點是Minute b浪)，而4590點是Minor B浪反彈的結束。我們目前處於Minor C浪下跌之中，預計Minor C浪會到達3700點左右的位置。

 

下週短期的支持位是4394和4279點，阻力位在4546和4465點。短期的MACD牛交叉在縮小， RSI在週五收市處在平衡狀態。

 

***********

 

Weekly S&P 500 Review

 

The S&P 500 Index went down 1.82% this week and closed at 4419. We confirmed the medium-term trend is the downtrend. The SPX index bonuce back earlier this week, with a more serve deline, which helped us to update the medium-term and short term guidance.

 

Our long-term labelling on the SPX, is after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and the Intermediate i has already finished at 4819, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The target of Intermediate ii will be 3700.

 

In the short-term, Intermediate ii will have 3 Minor wave, and Minor A finished at 4223, and with the 3 wave rebound (Minute a at 4595, Minute b at 4451) we have the Minor B finished at 4590, and we’re in the Minor C wave down now. We’re expecting Minor C to reach around 3700.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4394 and 4279, while resistance is at 4546 and 4465. The short-term MACD bullish cross is narrowing, and the RSI is at balance status at Friday closing.