一周美股回顧 - 29 Jan 2022 / Weekly S&P 500 Review

 

一周美股回顧 -  29 Jan 2022

 

本周SPX (標普500) 指數上升0.77%，收於4432點。由於本周的大幅震蕩，尤其是周一的低位達到了4223點，讓我們對中期和短期的判斷都進行了一定的調整。我們目前給出了兩個可能性。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。

 

中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，我們目前仍然處在Intermediate i浪之中。 我們目前給Intermediate i浪的初步目標是4800點左右。我們目前認爲，其中的一個可能性是Minor 4已經在4495點結束，而整個Intermediate i浪在4819點結束，我們進入Intermediate ii浪下跌，而Intermediate ii浪的初步目標是3700點。

 

短期來説，我們認爲第二個可能性是目前正處於Intermediate i浪展開的Minor 浪中。其中Minor 1在3588點(上漲1396點)，Minor 2在3209點， Minor 3浪在4744點，而Minor 4浪正式的結束是在4223點，我們處在Minor 5浪上升之中。如果在接下來的2月和3月，SPX順利突破4800點，那麽我們就仍然處在Minor 5浪之中；如果SPX無力突破4600點，那麽我們可能就已經在Intermediate ii浪之中了。

 

下週短期的支持位是4394和4279點，阻力位在4465和4546點。短期的MACD熊交叉在縮小， RSI在週五收市處在平衡狀態。

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Weekly S&P 500 Review

 

The S&P 500 Index went up 0.77% this week and closed at 4432. The big swing this week, especially the new low at 4223 make us to adjust both the medium and short term, with 2 possibilities.

 

Our long-term labelling on the SPX, is after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III.

 

In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and we’re in the Intermediate i now, which we expect it will travel to around 4800 points. One of the possibilities is, the Minor 4 has ended at 4495, and the Intermediate I already finished at 4819, while we’re in the Intermediate ii pull back. The target of Intermediate ii will be 3700.

 

In the short-term, the other possibility is we’re in the Minor waves of Intermediate i. Minor 1 finished at 3588 (with 1396 points), Minor 2 closed at 3209, Minor 3 has been concluded at 4744, while Minor 4 concluded at 4223. We’re now in the Minor 5 rally. If the SPX managed to break through 4800 again, then we could confirm the Minor 5 scenario; if the SPX could not break through 4600, then we are likely to stay in Intermediate ii now.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4394 and 4279, while resistance is at 4465 and 4546. The short-term MACD bearish cross has been narrowed, and the RSI is at balance status at Friday closing.