上周美股回顧 - 22 Jan 2022 / Weekly S&P 500 Review
上周美股回顧 - 22 Jan 2022
上周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌5.68%，收於4398點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是上升趨勢。本周市場大幅下跌，接連突破了幾個關鍵支持位，也讓我們對於短期的標注進行了調整。
我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，我們目前仍然處在Intermediate i浪之中。 我們目前給Intermediate i浪的初步目標是4800點左右。
短期的SPX圖表中，我們認爲目前正處於Intermediate i浪展開的Minor 浪中。其中Minor 1在3588點(上漲1396點)，Minor 2在3209點， Minor 3浪在4744點。本周的大幅下跌，讓我們認爲之前的Minor 4浪其實仍然在延續，所以我們對短期的標記進行了調整。其中4495點是Minute A浪， 4819點是Minute B浪，我們目前在Minute C下跌之中。Minute C浪有可能在4395點結束，也可能繼續向下。無論如何，SPX指數仍然需要一個新高來結束這個牛市。
下週短期的支持位是4394和4320點，阻力位在4465和4546點。短期的MACD熊交叉持續擴大， RSI在週五收市處在極度超賣狀態。
Weekly S&P 500 Review
The SPX Index went down 5.68% this week and closed at 4398. We continue
to expect the medium-term trend as uptrend. This week the market makes sharp
drop in most days and break quite some key support, which makes us to adjust
the short term marks accordingly.
Our long-term labelling on the SPX, is after the Cycle 2 bear market
ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5
primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and
Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III. In the
medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in
2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now.
The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and we’re in the Intermediate
i now, which we expect it will travel to around 4800 points.
In the short-term
SPX chart attached, we’re in the Minor waves of Intermediate i. Minor 1
finished at 3588 (with 1396 points), Minor 2 closed at 3209, Minor 3 has been concluded at 4744. The large pull back this week make us
reconsider the Minor 4 continuous extension, where 4495 is Minute A, 4819 is
Minute B and we may at the Minute C now. It’s possible that Minute C has
concluded at 4395 or it will continue to unfold. No matter what, the market
still needs an all-time high at closing to finish the bull market.
In the coming week,
the short-term support lies at 4394 and 4320, while resistance is at 4465 and 4546.
The short-term MACD continue with a bearish cross, and the RSI is at extremely
oversold status at Friday closing.
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