上周美股回顧 - 15 Jan 2022 / Weekly S&P 500 Review

 

上周美股回顧 -  15 Jan 2022

 

上周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌0.30%，收於4663點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是上升趨勢。本周市場繼續大幅波動，其中周一創出2022年新低4582點。由於目前反彈浪的乏力，我們對於短期的標注進行了一定的調整。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，我們目前仍然處在Intermediate i浪之中。 我們目前給Intermediate i浪的初步目標是4800點左右。

 

短期的SPX圖表中，我們認爲目前正處於Intermediate i浪展開的Minor 浪中。其中Minor 1在3588點(上漲1396點)，Minor 2在3209點， Minor 3浪在4744點。我們目前傾向認爲Minor 4浪已經在4495點結束，我們處在Minor 5上升浪之中。Minor 5浪細分為5個Minute浪， Minute a在4732點，Minute b在4531點， Minute c在4819點，我們目前可能在Minute d浪之中，也可能Minute d浪已經在4582點結束。無論如何，SPX指數仍然需要一個新高來結束這個牛市。

 

下週短期的支持位是4650和4546點，阻力位在4744和4818點。短期的MACD熊交叉持續， RSI在週五收市處在平衡狀態。

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Weekly S&P 500 Review

 

The SPX Index went down 0.30% this week and closed at 4633. We continue to expect the medium-term trend as uptrend. This week still have big swing up and down, and we saw the 2022 low at 4582 last Monday. According to the relatively weak bounce, we adjust the short term mark a bit.

 

Our long-term labelling on the SPX, is after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III. In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and we’re in the Intermediate i now, which we expect it will travel to around 4800 points.

 

In the short-term SPX chart attached, we’re in the Minor waves of Intermediate i. Minor 1 finished at 3588 (with 1396 points), Minor 2 closed at 3209, Minor 3 has been concluded at 4744. We tend to consider the Minor 4 has finished at 4495, and we’re in Minor 5 wave up now. The Minor 5 wave could be divided into 5 Minute wave, which Minute a at 4732, Minute b at 4531, Minute c at 4819, and we may at the Minute d now, or the Minute d has concluded at 4582. No matter what, the market still needs an all-time high closing to finish the bull market.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4650 and 4546, while resistance is at 4744 and 4818. The short-term MACD continue with a bearish cross, and the RSI is at balance status at Friday closing.