上周美股回顧 - 25 Dec 2021 / Weekly S&P 500 Review

 上周美股回顧 -  25 Dec 2021

 

上周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲2.28%，收於4726點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是上升趨勢。本周市場前低後高，在周一回調至4531點后迅速反彈。然而反彈并未超出之前的波動區間，所以我們繼續維持短期的兩個可能性。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，我們目前仍然處在Intermediate i浪之中。 我們目前給Intermediate i浪的初步目標是4800點左右。

 

短期的SPX圖表中，我們認爲目前正處於Intermediate i浪展開的Minor 浪中。其中Minor 1在3588點(上漲1396點)，Minor 2在3209點， Minor 3浪在4744點。我們目前仍然維持認爲後市有兩個可能，其一是Minor 4浪已經在4495點結束，我們處在Minor 5上升浪之中；其二是4495點是Minor 4浪的Minute a浪，目前的反彈是Minute b浪。短期市場的大幅波動本身也是牛市末期的特徵之一。

 

下週短期的支持位是4605和4650點，阻力位在4744和4800點。短期的MACD恢復牛交叉， RSI在週五收市處在接近超買狀態。

 

 ******

 

Weekly S&P 500 Review

 

The SPX Index went up 2.28% this week and closed at 4726. We continue to expect the medium-term trend as uptrend. This week the market went lower on Monday but swiftly recover in the rest of trading days, but still traded within the range. Thus, we continue to maintain the 2 possibilities in the short term.

 

Our long-term labelling on the SPX, is after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III. In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and we’re in the Intermediate i now, which we expect it will travel to around 4800 points.

 

In the short-term SPX chart attached, we’re in the Minor waves of Intermediate i. Minor 1 finished at 3588 (with 1396 points), Minor 2 closed at 3209, Minor 3 has been concluded at 4744. We continue to maintain the 2 possibilities for the short term: (1) The Minor 4 has finished at 4495 and we’re in Minor 5 now; (2) The 4495 is Minute a of Minor 4 and we’re in the Minute b bounce.  The large move up or down is also a typical behavior in the late stage of a bull market.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4605 and 4650, while resistance is at 4744 and 4800. The short-term MACD got a bullish cross, and the RSI is close to overbought status on Friday closing.