上周美股回顧 - 18 Dec 2021 / Weekly S&P 500 Review

 上周美股回顧 -  18 Dec 2021

 

上周SPX (標普500) 指數下跌1.94%，收於4621點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是上升趨勢。本周市場高位震蕩，但是并未有效出現向上或者向下突破。因此，我們繼續維持短期的兩個可能性。

 

我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle 3的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary III浪。中期而言，Primary III又細分成5個Major浪， Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major 2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，我們目前仍然處在Intermediate i浪之中。 我們目前給Intermediate i浪的初步目標是4800點左右。

 

短期的SPX圖表中，我們認爲目前正處於Intermediate i浪展開的Minor 浪中。其中Minor 1在3588點(上漲1396點)，Minor 2在3209點， Minor 3浪在4744點。我們目前仍然維持認爲後市有兩個可能，其一是Minor 4浪已經在4495點結束，我們處在Minor 5上升浪之中；其二是4495點是Minor 4浪的Minute a浪，目前的反彈是Minute b浪。我們仍然期待市場在接下來兩周給出答案。

 

下週短期的支持位是4605和4546點，阻力位在4744和4650點。短期的MACD進入熊交叉， RSI在週五收市處在平衡狀態。

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Weekly S&P 500 Review

 

The SPX Index went down 1.94% this week and closed at 4621. We continue to expect the medium-term trend as uptrend. This week the market has a large swing but did not manage to either break up or break down. Thus we continue to maintain the 2 possibilities in the short term.

 

Our long-term labelling on the SPX, is after the Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III. In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and we’re in the Intermediate i now, which we expect it will travel to around 4800 points.

 

In the short-term SPX chart attached, we’re in the Minor waves of Intermediate i. Minor 1 finished at 3588 (with 1396 points), Minor 2 closed at 3209, Minor 3 has been concluded at 4744. We continue to maintain the 2 possibilities for the short term: (1) The Minor 4 has finished at 4495 and we’re in Minor 5 now; (2) The 4495 is Minute a of Minor 4 and we’re in the Minute b bounce.  We expect the market will provide us a clear direction in the coming weeks.

 

In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 4605 and 4546, while resistance is at 4744 and 4650. The short-term MACD got a bearish cross, and the RSI is at balance status on Friday closing.