上周美股回顧 - 11 Dec 2021 / Weekly S&P 500 Review
上周美股回顧 - 11 Dec 2021
上周SPX (標普500) 指數上漲3.82%,收於4712點。我們繼續維持中期趨勢是上升趨勢。本周市場迅速反彈,也讓我們對後市的預期有所調整。
我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷,是2009年熊市的Cycle 2在667點結束之後,我們進入了Cycle 3的牛市。Cycle 3細分成爲5個Primary浪,其中Primary I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點),Primary II在2016年的1810點結束,我們之後進入Primary III浪。中期而言,Primary III又細分成5個Major浪, Major 1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點),Major 2浪在2192點,之後我們進入了Major 3浪。Major 3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪,我們目前仍然處在Intermediate i浪之中。 我們目前給Intermediate i浪的初步目標是4800點左右。
短期的SPX圖表中,我們認爲目前正處於Intermediate i浪展開的Minor 浪中。其中Minor 1在3588點(上漲1396點),Minor 2在3209點, Minor 3浪在4744點。本周的快速反彈,讓我們認爲後市有兩個可能,其一是Minor 4浪已經在4495點結束,我們處在Minor 5上升浪之中;其二是4495點是Minor 4浪的Minute a浪,目前的反彈是Minute b浪。我們期待市場在接下來的幾周給出答案。
下週短期的支持位是4605和4546點,阻力位在4744和4800點。短期的MACD進入牛交叉, RSI在週五收市處在平衡狀態。
Weekly S&P 500 Review
The SPX Index went up 3.82% this week and closed at 4712. We continue to
expect the medium-term trend as uptrend. This week the market has a very quick
rebound which lead to our adjustment in the short term.
Our long-term labelling on the SPX, is after the Cycle 2 bear market
ends at 667 in 2009, we’re in the Cycle 3 bull market. Cycle 3 wave have 5
primary waves, and Primary I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and
Primary II ended at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III. In the
medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves, where Major 1 closed at 3394 in
2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2 ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now.
The Major 3 wave will have 5 Intermediate waves, and we’re in the Intermediate
i now, which we expect it will travel to around 4800 points.
In the short-term
SPX chart attached, we’re in the Minor waves of Intermediate i. Minor 1
finished at 3588 (with 1396 points), Minor 2 closed at 3209, Minor 3 has been concluded at 4744. The market movement this week points
to 2 possibilities: (1) The Minor 4 has finished at 4495 and we’re in Minor 5 now;
(2) The 4495 is Minute a of Minor 4 and we’re in the Minute b bounce. We expect the market will provide us a clear
direction in the coming weeks.
In the coming week,
the short-term support lies at 4605 and 4546, while resistance is at 4744 and 4800.
The short-term MACD got a bullish cross, and the RSI is at balance status on
Friday closing.
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